Part 1: Grappling with natural variation and making statistical decisions

1: Hypothesis Tests

2: Discrete Probability Models

Key Concept: 2-sigma tests

Tell me more: Counting

Tell me more: Gerrymandering

Tell me more: Vaccines

Part 1: Worked Examples

Part 2: How to update your opinion based on new evidence

3: Independence and Conditional Probability

4: Bayes Rule and How to Interpret Simple YES/NO Tests

5: Bayes and the Binomial: Interpreting Polling Data

Part 3: Parameter estimation and interpretation

In this section, we strive for the standard communicated by this quote, adopted from Natasha Sarin’s interview on the Ezra Klein podcast.

Q: Is the glass half-empty or half full? A: This 8 ounce glass contains 4 ounces of water, plus or minus 0.03 ounces.

6: Z and the Central Limit Theorem; t and small sample means

7: Transformations of data and confidence intervals.

8: Comparisons of two sample populations.

Part 4: Correlation, Regression, and Prediction

9: Correlation (which does not imply causation!) and Regression